The Central Statistics Office (CSO), Ministry of Statistics and Programme Implementation has released the advance estimates of national income at constant (2004-05) and current prices, for the financial year 2010-11.
These advance estimates are based on anticipated level of agricultural and industrial production, analysis of budget estimates of government expenditure and performance of key sectors like, railways, transport other than railways, communication, banking and insurance, available so far. The advance estimates at current prices are derived by estimating the implicit price deflators (IPDs) at sectoral level from the relevant price indices.
The salient features of these estimates are detailed below:
Estimates at Constant (2004-05) Prices
Gross Domestic Product
Gross Domestic Product (GDP) at factor cost at constant (2004-05) prices in the year 2010-11 is likely to attain a level of Rs. 48,79,232 crore, as against the Quick Estimates of GDP for the year 2009-10 of Rs. 44,93,743 crore, released on 31st January 2011. The growth in GDP during 2010-11 is estimated at 8.6 per cent as compared to the growth rate of 8.0 per cent in 2009-10.
The growth rate of 8.6 per cent in GDP during 2010-11 has been due to the growth rates of over 8 per cent in the sectors of ‘manufacturing’, ‘construction’, 'trade, hotels, transport and communication', 'financing, insurance, real estate and business services'. Agriculture sector registered a growth rate of 5.4 percent.
Agriculture
The ‘agriculture, forestry and fishing’ sector is likely to show a growth of 5.4 per cent in its GDP during 2010-11, as against the previous year’s growth rate of 0.4 per cent. According to the information furnished by the Department of Agriculture and Cooperation (DAC), which has been used in compiling the estimate of GDP from agriculture in 2010-11, production of foodgrains and oilseeds is expected to grow by 6.5 per cent and 11.9 per cent, respectively, as compared to the previous agriculture year. The production of cotton and sugarcane is also expected to rise by 41.2 per cent and 15.2 per cent, respectively, in 2010-11. Among the horticultural crops, production of fruits and vegetables is expected to increase by 4.1 per cent and
3.8 per cent, respectively, during the year 2010-11.
Industry
The growth in GDP for mining and quarrying and manufacturing sectors during 2010-11 is expected to be 6.2 and 8.8 percent respectively over previous year. According to the latest estimates available on the Index of Industrial Production (IIP), the index of mining and manufacturing registered growth rates of 8.0 per cent and 10.0 per cent during AprilNovember, 2010. The estimated growth rate for construction sector is 8.0 percent in 2010-11.
The key indicators of construction sector, namely, cement production and steel consumption have registered growth rates of 4.4 per cent and 8.8 per cent, respectively during AprilDecember, 2010.
Services
The estimated growth in GDP for the trade, hotels, transport and communication sectors during 2010-11 is placed at 11.0 per cent, mainly on account of growth during AprilNovember, 2010-11 of 14.9 per cent in passengers handled in civil aviation , 21.3 per cent in air cargo handled and 40.9 per cent in stock of telephone connections. The sales of commercial vehicles witnessed an increase of 34.1 per cent per cent in April-December, 2010. The sector, 'financing, insurance, real estate and business services', is expected to show a growth rate of 10.6 per cent during 2010-11, on account of 14.0 per cent growth in aggregate
deposits and 22.6 per cent growth in bank credit during April- November 2010 (against the respective growth rates of 18.6 per cent and 10.1 per cent in the corresponding period of previous year). The growth rate of 'community, social and personal services' during 2010-11 is estimated to be 5.7 per cent.
National Income
The net national income (NNI) at factor cost, also known as national income, at 2004-05 prices is likely to be Rs. 42,69,994 crore during 2010-11, as against the previous year's Quick Estimate of Rs. 39,46,540 crore. In terms of growth rates, the national income is expected to rise by 8.2 per cent during 2010-11 in comparison to the growth rate of 7.5 percent in 2009-10.
Per Capita Income
The per capita income in real terms (at 2004-05 prices) during 2010-11 is likely to attain a level of Rs. 36,003 as compared to the Quick Estimate for the year 2009-10 of Rs. 33,731. The growth rate in per capita income is estimated at 6.7 per cent during 2010-11, as against the previous year's estimate of 6.1 per cent.
Estimates at Current Prices
Gross Domestic Product
GDP at factor cost at current prices in the year 2010-11 is likely to attain a level of Rs. 72,56,571 crore, showing a growth rate of 18.3 per cent over the Quick Estimates of GDP for the year 2009-10 of Rs. 61,33,230 crore.
National Income
The NNI at factor cost at current prices is anticipated to be Rs. 64,66,860 crore during 2010-11, as compared to Rs. 54,39,557 crore during 2009-10, showing a rise of 18.9 per cent.
Per Capita Income
The per capita income at current prices during 2010-11 is estimated to be Rs. 54,527 as compared to Rs. 46,492 during 2009-10, showing a rise of 17.3 per cent.
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